Army ups the ante
Posted: October 14, 2011 Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: Egypt SCAF SS Maspero Copts Muslims Jan25 Leave a comment »The Massacre of Egyptian civilians by the Egyptian armed forces at Maspero, and the subsequent denial (by the army leadership) of any deaths at the hands of the army, sends a clear signal that Egypt is headed towards a fascist dictatorship. Add to this the zealous support of the state-run media – to the point where one of the channels asked citizens to leave their homes and protect the army from the Christians – and you have a situation far more dangerous and foreboding than the one which existed prior to January 25.
Jan 25 was a popular uprising against the tyranny of Mubarak’s state security. This has been replaced by a far more tyrannical and deadly army command.
The Egyptian High Command (SCAF), by their actions, and by their later denial, and by their attempted manipulation of the media, have simultaneously crossed a line that they didn’t need to cross (Army as protectors of Egypt and its people) and stepped onto a path of total fascism.
For the time-being many people will support the army putting the ‘uppity’ Christians (and their Muslim defenders) in their place, but the line they have crossed, the boundaries they have broken, and the rending of the veil of legitimacy they have been hiding behind will have grave consequences for all of Egypt for the foreseeable future.
They can no longer claim to be defenders of Egyptian people, since they clearly marked out Egyptian Christians by running them down with armoured personnel carriers, by shooting them, and by allowing them to be shot and stabbed by ‘thugs’ that their media outlets incited to join them against the national threat.
Every action has a reaction. And the army showed that peaceful demonstrators can be shot down and mowed down. The next demonstration that faces that kind of brutality will know what the possibilities are.
The army high command is irresponsible, criminal, and has crossed a line it said it would never cross.
It’s not going to be about sectarian tension the next time out. It will be about the hated state security being replaced by a hated state security. Only the uniforms are different.
For a great analysis of the events of Maspero and those leading up to them check this out: http://www.merip.org/mero/mero101311#.Tph_l5HQtps.facebook
The March
Posted: July 23, 2011 Filed under: Egypt Politics | Tags: Jul23, March, MOD, SCAF, Tahrir Leave a comment »I was not in The March. This is not an account of what happened. I was not even in Tahrir, although I had planned to go, but The March was not in my plans.
1000s of people decided The March was necessary, I was not one of them. The March was the will of the majority in Tahrir (and I fully support the right of citizens to protest and march) but I believed that The March was ill-prepared, poorly planned, and would not achieve the goals that it wished to achieve.
The March was borne out of intense frustration and a desire to up the ante. Which is also fine by me. Everybody is frustrated and there needs to be pressure points on the military leadership lest they believe they have succeeded in averting/subverting the revolution. And, while the anniversary of the 1952 military coup screams out for a significant action, I believe that The March was not it.
Jan25 was Police Day, and, unlike July23, was not a long weekend in Summer prior to Ramadan. In fact, it was a Tuesday, so nobody had left town.
Jan25 was planned and executed like a military operation, with everyone converging on the square from all over town. It took the police entirely by surprise and until midnight to launch their counter-attack.
Jul23 was a march right into the teeth of a fully prepared military and police.
A planned march would have known about the military blockade, and the high chance of an ambush by the police/thugs. A planned march would have had shields, escape routes, numbers to call for help, rally points, masks, TV crews, medics, support from local groups in Abbaseya.
So, either the organizers over-estimated themselves and their strength, or underestimated their opponents (which would be surprising considering previous clashes and the army/police attacks on the Alexandria sit-in the day before).
Or there is another possibility, that some people, knowing how their opponent would act, and knowing that the marchers would be ill-prepared, decided that the revolution needed more blood (and possibly more martyrs) and convinced the peaceful sit-in protestors that their protest was ineffectual and the time was right for a bold march (omitting the bit about extra blood and martyrs of course).
I hope that this is not the case.
But if you are going to call for a clash with the police and army, the least you can do is prepare your people for the inevitable outcome – unless, of course your arrogance is such that you believe your mere presence is enough to frighten armed soldiers behind barbed-wire and tanks.
So back to Tahrir. I fully support the extended sit-in, as do many people who see it as the legitimate right of the people to gather for protest and occupy the square. A ‘Tahrir’ in every city in Egypt sends the message that the revolution is not over. It has the legitimacy of Jan25 and the fact that it has, until yesterday in Alex, not been molested by the military/police is a victory and a testament to its strength.
I hope that today has not damaged either its strength or its legitimacy.
Tahrir, and the protracted sit-in, is a symbol of hope for many people, especially with so few other visible symbols. It is one of many pressure points which need to be continually applied to the military leaders. But it is not an overnight game-changer. And it is not going to bring the military to its knees in the short-term. That’s the job of the labor strike movement and intense negative media, as well as the political parties and even the interim government. However, if Tahrir grows, if it gains momentum, if it becomes the focal point and is replicated around the country, then it will be the decisive symbol and the catalyst for the change we all so much desire.
So back to Tahrir, literally and figuratively, is pretty much what we have right now, and that can be pretty amazing if we can hold it together and inspire its spirit elsewhere in the country.
And if there is another march, prepare for battle; even if the intention is peaceful be fully prepared to escape or confront violence, or don’t go.
Every Action Has a Reaction
Posted: July 18, 2011 Filed under: Egypt Politics | Tags: #Jan25, #Jul8, Army, Egypt, Junta, Nezam, Revolution, Tahrir 1 Comment »
highly mobile force meets immobile force
Newton’s Third Law states: every action has an equal and opposite reaction. There are no exceptions to Newton’s Third Law.
30 years of military dictatorship (or 50 if you take the longer view) and a police state, backed by an army, was a force. However, it was not apparent that there was an equal and opposite force in Egypt until January 25th
The reaction to 30 years of living in a repressive police state, together with countrywide stagnation and corruption, and a widening gulf between the rich and the rest, exploded, throughout Egypt, and resulted in the burning and destruction of the physical structures representing that force – NDP buildings, police stations, and State Security facilities. It also resulted in the removal of the top leadership, and ensured the stillbirth of that leadership’s desire for a dynastic rule.
However, the reaction to 30 years of state oppression and military rule has not ended. And that is because, in Newtonian terms, the force has not reached an equal and opposite reaction. In reality, the momentum of 18 days did not remove the police state, nor the forces behind it. It did not end stagnation or corruption, and it did not redress the balance.
The army that supported the previous regime believes it has a central role to play to ensure the next regime. The army believes its legitimacy comes from the people, from its revolutionary roots in the 1950s, and from the fact that it is powerful (and has guns and tanks enough to enforce that power). Increasingly the legitimacy of the army leadership, and its role post 1952, is coming into question. The ‘people’ are asking for democracy and an end to dictatorship (and have been for many years), and the army is choosing to dictate the terms and conditions of that democracy, and the timeline for it.
The current army leadership seems irritated that the people want rights and freedoms denied to them by every regime that promised them upon assuming power. Authoritarian generals appear on national TV and finger-wag and threaten those asking for their rights and their freedoms. They dictate to them an ‘acceptable’ mode of protest; outlawing sit-ins, strikes, marches and gatherings.
The Emperor dispatches his trusted lieutenant to coerce the Rebel Alliance
The army leadership’s stick & stick approach is reminiscent of previous regimes. The tone of the communiqués is reminiscent of the previous leadership. Their condescending and patronizing speeches are reminiscent of Mubarak’s speeches during his last 18 days of power. They seem out of touch with the forces that oppose a return to the status-quo. There is no dialogue with those forces. The only dialogue is with political parties in power-broking maneuvers to ensure their own power, and position, in/behind any future government.
The current military leadership seems to be deaf to the central unifying message of the revolution “el sha3b yureed isqat el nezam”, wanting to believe, perhaps, that the nezam the people wish to remove is limited to the Mubaraks and their closest allies.
They seem to believe that the removal of the Mubaraks et al, the prosecution of some well-known businessmen, some band-aids on the constitution, and vague promises of reform constitute an end to the nezam.
The nezam means something else to those who supported the revolution:
- An end to police powers of random arrest and torture, harassment (and unaccountability)
- An end to rigged elections, corrupt ministries, nepotism, bribery (and unaccountability)
- An end to a media that lies, fabricates, obfuscates and acts as a mouthpiece for whatever regime (and unaccountability)
That is the nezam everybody wishes to see an end to.
Until that nezam is gone, the rebuilding of Egypt cannot commence. The nation’s health system, its education system and its tourism, housing, and agriculture, are tainted, and dysfunctional, because of the nezam.
And, until that nezam is gone, a citizen will be unable to feel he has the same rights as the next man, regardless of how rich or poor he is, or whom he knows or does not know.
It should come as no surprise to anyone, then, that civil action by an increasing number of people all over the country is continuing to gain momentum.
The nezam is still in place, and looks likely to be for the next generation of Egyptians. The interim government seems powerless to take action, the current military leadership seems deaf to the will of the people, and the political parties waiting to battle it out in elections someday are not promising an end to it.
It should also come as no surprise to anyone that the goals of the revolution have not changed. Free and fair democratic elections, free and accountable media, accountable and transparent judiciary and legislature, an accountable security apparatus.
So let’s look again at the Newtonian principle – there is a force, a momentum, a movement for the end of the nezam that is currently being met by an equal and opposing force for the continuation of the status quo. It seems there is a deadlock. However, the force for change has been 30 years in the making and its momentum is irresistible in the long term.
All that remains to be seen is how long the opposing force can resist.
